lundi 27 août 2007

L'économie mondiale : une prospérité fragile

I. Crise et désordre de l'après-guerre

A. Une sévère crise de reconversion (1920-1921)

La crise naît d'une situation de surproduction relative aggravée par un blocage prématuré des paiements internationaux

1. schemas de la crise

>> forte demande alimentée par les besoins de la reconstruction, mais aussi un desir de consomation

>> potentiel productif des nvx pays contitnu à croitre

>> Surproduction relative qd les pays europpen recommence à produire

>=> Climat tendu: 1920 USA suspendent pret gouvernementaux, il s'en suit une eduction des avance octroyée par les banques privées, les euro ne peuvent plus payer donc les stock augmente dans les pays

>> En 1922 nouvel equilibre ce creer lors de la resorption des stocks excédentaires

CCL >> gravité du desordre monétaire

B. Une nouveauté dangereuse: l'inflation en Europe

Pbl : l'Europe passe de créancière du monde à débitrice du monde >> ruine du Gold standard

USA : Créance de 12 milliards de $
EU : créance sur la Russie mais pas recouvrable, endettement interne également

C. Les crises monétaire de l'après-guerre

mecanisme : détenteure de monnaire peu solide la change dans des valeurs sûrs

Destruction complete de certain systeme monetaire : mark allemand et par contagion, russe, autriche, hongrie ...

En france intervention de la banque centrale.

II. La prospérité retrouvé ?
A. La restauration du liberalisme
1. USA
13 novembre 1918 : War Industries Board libère les prix

2. GB
Lloyd George rétablit liberté économique entre 1919 et 1921

3. France

abaissement des tarif douniers de 40 % entre 1913 et 1927.
B. La reconstruction d'un systeme monétaire international

Conference de genes en 1922 pose les principe du nvx sys monetaire international >>
* Gold Exchange Standard est un taux de change fixe défini lors des accords de Bretton Woods. Dans ce cadre, le dollar américain est indexé sur l'or et les devises des autres pays sont indexées sur le dollar américain.

* Le Gold Bullion Standard est une particularité du Gold Exchange Standard, système monétaire international mis en place au lendemain de la Première Guerre mondiale pour succéder au Gold Standard.

Le terme Bullion signifie en français lingot. Avec le Gold Bullion Standard, les devises gagées sur l'or restent librement convertibles en or, mais seulement au delà d'un certain montant (l'équivalent monétaire d'un lingot). En pratique, cela restreint les possibilités de conversion de devises en or aux banques. La [thésaurisation] de l'or par les particuliers est limitée: les petites quantitiés d'or que les particuliers peuvent posséder n'ont pas de valeur monétaire. Enfin cela permet aux banques centrales de pratiquer un taux de couverture de la masse monétaire en circulation plus lâche, en rendant impossibles les phénomènes de demande massive de conversion de devises en or.

Le Gold Bullion Standard est donc une amélioration apportée au Gold Standard. Il contribue à la stabilité du système, et rend possible une augmentation plus souple de la masse monétaire. On peut noter en outre qu'il s'agit d'un pas franchi vers l'abolition de la référence à l'or dans le système monétaire international.

Mise en pratique de ces resolutions s'échelonne de 1924 à 1928

1. en allemagne

Creation du Reichsmark en 1924 par Schacht selon les regles définis à Gênes

2. En GB

Gold Bullion Standard Act voté le 13 mai 1925

3. En France

large dévaluation du franc pour rétablir en 1928 la convertibilité en lingot

>> Dette et réparation -->

* payement reduit et echeloné des reparations

Circuit artificiel >> credit americain >> reparation alllemande >> remboursement de la dette de guerre. A chque étape il y possiblité d'investissement

C. L'épanouissement de la deuxième révolution industrielle

Decouverte du taylorisme et de la standardisation , le fordisme >> citroene fait la même
>> nouvelle pratique industrielle à travers le monde

Renovation du bilan energetique à partir de 1930 >> petrole electricité....

-->> multiplication des accrod de cartellisation : quelques firme peu nombreuse s'assure le controle de production entière. Ex : voiture en france, metalurgie en allemagne, chimie aux USA...

III. Une prospérité mal fondée
A. Une prospérité fort mal partagée
1. Vs pays

USA et EU occ s'accaparent l'ensemble des moyen industriel et controle la majorité des echanges mondiaux.

2. Desequilibre sectoriel

a. Dans l'industrie

toute les branche ne se dvp pas au même rythme
>> essor de l'aviation et TSF souligne le röle essentiel des transport et de communications après guerre

Pbl : ecoulement de la production de masse, malgrés publicité et credit, pas d'augmentation de revenu salariaux et mentalité enclin à l'épargne et chomage de masse ( machinisme entre autre ..)

Cas isolé : les americains >> excès de crédit

b. L'agriculture

Surproduction chronique, faible croissance démographique >> endettement (40% des domaines allemand, 42% des terres hyp aux USA)


B. Des bases financières malsaines

Critique >> jacques Rueff denonce Gold Exchange Standard car permet l'inflation : un même sock d'or peut garantir la création et ciculation de plusieur monnaie...

CCL : essor productif des année 20 conduisent finalement à une situation d'engorgement des marchés et à de desiquilibre...

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